The result of the Victorian election has been analysed to within an inch of its life. Federal factors, state factors, good leadership, leadership in a vacuum. One thing we can conclude with certainty is that Dan Andrews is the most successful political leader in Australia at present.
He is a formidable politician. We know this because his opponents now acknowledge it.
Andrews has gone from socialist ne’er-do-well, painted as a cartoon villain in so many op-eds last week to being extolled by John Howard during an interview with Leigh Sales on 7.30 on Tuesday night.
“Can I give credit where it is due, I think Daniel Andrews was a very good campaigner. I think he is an extremely good communicator. He explains things clearly, simply and well …” Howard said.
High praise.
The previous titleholder was Annastacia Palaszczuk who went from minority government in Queensland in 2015 on the back of a 12 per cent swing, to forming majority government in Queensland in 2017 with a four-seat net gain.
Dan Andrews’ triumph in Victoria with votes still being counted points to a nine-seat net gain and swing towards Labor on primary vote of 4.6 per cent with the Liberals (-5.9 per cent), Greens (-1.6 per cent) and Nationals (-0.2) all down.
Elsewhere in the states there are new governments in power who are yet to return to the people to have their appeal and their records tested. In New South Wales, the thumping majority won by Barry O’Farrell in 2011 was cut back in 2015 under Mike Baird by 15 seats. Gladys Berejiklian faces a tough fight to hang on in the 2019 state election on March 23 next year and will almost certainly lose seats.
Federally, no government has been returned with an increased majority since the Coalition under John Howard in 2004.
This makes Dan Andrews the undisputed king of electoral politics in Australia. While there have been calumnies (notably the ‘Red Shirts’ scandal with allegations of electoral fraud) and missteps along the way, his first-term agenda has been substantially carried out. The plan for a second term, how to get there and why was effectively communicated.
In the campaign, Andrews assiduously avoided attack politics. He chose to rise above it for the practical reason that the majority of voters are turned off by the schoolyard name calling and petty derision commonplace in politics elsewhere.
Basic stuff, really, for any political party seeking to find its way into government and stay there.
Maybe we need not look much further at the reasons for Andrews’ success. But I want to tell a story that I thought was best left until after the Victorian election lest it be thought I was trying to sway voters. We are beyond that now and the dust has settled.
I’ve had dealings with the Andrews government, not as a journalist but as an advocate on behalf of Denis Ryan. Many will know the story. Denis was a detective with Victoria Police based in Mildura who sought to prosecute an outrageously prolific paedophile priest only to find corrupt forces within VicPol turn against him. That was in 1972. He lost the job he loved and was left battered and bruised by the encounter.
Denis Ryan’s story was told by me in 2013 in the book Unholy Trinity. The assertions of police corruption and wilful ignorance within the Catholic Church were proven in the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sex Abuse in 2015.
The Andrews government had no legal liability to compensate Ryan. The statute of limitations had long since lapsed. I could only appeal to their sense of decency. I had meetings with ministers and almost endless streams of correspondence with various apparatchiks, chiefs of staff, media advisers. Former ministers in Labor governments were recruited to lobby current ministers.
Denis waited.
It was only when Premier Andrews stepped in that the wheels started turning. His intervention accelerated the matter to the point where the 87-year-old hero to so many in Victoria and across the nation received his compensation within a matter of days. After 46 years of waiting for justice, it was all done and dusted in less than two weeks.
The undisclosed amount was not a lotto win for Ryan. It was enough to buy him digs in a retirement home in Mildura and see his needs taken care of for the remainder of his life. He can enjoy a holiday now. That’s the strength of it and despite being owed millions, that is all Denis wanted.
I often said to Labor ministers, “If you want to have a good day in politics go and stand next to Denis Ryan. Shake his hand and see him right.”
I thought they might be swayed by the thought of a good news story. An election was looming. A government could always do with a good news day.
Remarkably, Andrews did not seek to make a virtue out of it. Neither Andrews nor any of his ministers went up to Mildura to stand on a flat bed truck and hand Denis an oversized presentation cheque in front of a gaggle of media, in an attempt to squeeze a vote out of it here and there. Instead it was done quietly. Without a fuss.
The payment did not have to be made and without the intervention of Andrews, the request for compensation may well be gathering dust on someone’s desk deep in the bowels of a minister’s office in Spring Street. Dan Andrews chose to compensate Ryan without any hullabaloo, any rough politicking. He just did it.
From someone who has been an observer of government for a long time, seen them come and go — some good, some less so — it was impressive.
Some might say the Andrews government did what any government should do and they’d be right, but the fact remains there were eight state governments in Victoria from both sides of the divide that should have acted but did not.
Ryan was made a Member of the Order of Australia on Australia Day this year for his services to “child protection investigations”. He was named Mildura’s Citizen of the Year, the award bestowed upon him on the same day.
After he received his compensation, another award came his way. Denis was to be made a Freeman of the City of Mildura.
He personally invited Premier Andrews to attend the ceremony. Andrews replied in writing days later.
Dear Mr Ryan,
I am sorry I cannot be there in person to see the conferment of your latest title, ‘Freeman of the Rural City of Mildura’.
But I cannot think of a more deserving recipient.
While others chose to hide the truth or avert their gaze, you instead shone a bright light on one of our darkest chapters.
Your courage of conviction, and your relentless pursuit of justice, have changed our nation for good.
On behalf of the Victorian government and the Victorian people, thank you.
Yours sincerely,
Dan Andrews
Politicians come and go. And Dan Andrews one day will certainly go. The how and the why is a long way from being determined. As Paul Keating said of a life in politics, “Everyone goes out feet first, the only difference is whether the pall bearers are crying or not.”
There is perhaps another truism. In politics as in life, decency goes a long way.
This article was first published in The Australian on 28 November 2018.
Top comment Dismayed.
What comment? Oh yes, he said nutin. A top comment indeed!
I have been racking my brain. What was it that Kelly O’Dwyer was reminding me of when she said that the Coalition is the natural government for Australian women? Got it eventually. It was Yassmin Abdel- Magied saying that Islam is the most feminist religion.
So I guess NewsCorp will have O’Dwyer run out of town too.
Re the latest blog, if the alternative PM wasn’t Shorten I’d agree that a bloodbath was a reasonable prediction. Yet even behind Shorten, the likes of Burke, Bowen and Plibersek hardly fills one with joy and confidence. And on the flip side, Morrison is making a decent fist of a bad hand, will hopefully improve and will certainly campaign and debate better than Turnbull would’ve. On the coalition’s side, as mentioned, the economy is in better shape and the budget will have the Taylor Swift surplus and possibly an increase to pensions and benefits. Still I think it likely that Shorten will win but not by anything insurmountable and after a little while Abbott will return as leader of the opposition and return to power at the following election. A lot of comments on the other side indicate that Abbott is a polarising character. Fair enough, nothing new there. But on the other hand, Shorten is a unifying character, everyone knows he’s a shifty dud.
Apologies if this a double up. Have been getting a few ”Error, duplicate copy” messages. The problem could be at this end as I’ve been reduced to using a shit hand me down computer from friends.
ps not impressed with some of Jack’s bbq mates. They’d be getting a few feisty beamers from mad Milton in the postprandial backyard cricket game.
A little light relief….. icy poles have been withdrawn at the youth detention centre here. The inmates were consuming up to 24 of them each per day and putting on too much weight.
I reckon the artificial additives would have had them bouncing off the walls too.
Then of course, there’s an obvious admirable quality about a 61 year-old chap brimming with ambition and commendable altruistic ideals, the archetype of which has been sadly missing recently from the present mob who purport to be engaged in the wider pursuit of public service.
Yes, the contrast against the background of the few deluded folk, who flounce, flounder and retreat, dripping with faux compassion at the drop of a hat in a vain attempt at solidarity, cannot be more evident.
I will say this about you and also the astute Milton, Carl you are loyal to the last with Tony Abbott a loyalty I have never seen before and may never see again.
Dang, I must be missing something about the old “Whirling Dervish”?
Still I think Tony A should fight Tony M for a “modest” $3 million Purse! Cheers
“It’s hard to find a credible economist – or even a non-credible one – who doesn’t think that negative gearing should be reformed. ” “House prices have fallen 12% in Darwin in the past year, but risen 19% in Hobart, none of it due to negative gearing.” “Because negative gearing would still be available for new construction under Labor’s plan (and mine), it would add to the supply of new homes and push down rents. ”
“Also, as existing renters who want to purchase find they are able to, they will be move from being renters to owners, cutting the demand for places to rent and also putting downward pressure on rents.”
https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-why-now-is-the-right-time-to-clamp-down-on-negative-gearing-107370
Labor’s present policy on negative gearing in a nutshell is:
“Labor will limit negative gearing to new housing from a yet-to-be-determined date after the next election. This will mean that taxpayers will continue to be able to deduct net rental losses against their wage income, providing the losses come from newly constructed housing.”
If the above continues to be Labor’s policy un-amended after the next election, then it would appear that existing negative gearers would be able to offload their present property investments, purchase newly constructed housing, and thereby enjoy the same tax benefits benefits as they previously enjoyed?
So what’s the big deal?
Tracy – despite your reminders a few people still not putting their tips in. Good news for me!
I’m in for four rounds. Not good tips but tips nevertheless.
All tips are in Milt
Very good. I just need you to change 2 of my tips from last night, Tracy as I made an honest mistake twice.
cons have problems. Note the efforts to use taxpayer funds to buy silence and favor. just like adani pouring $thousands$ into Liberal via donations surely this is corrupt. No surprises.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/how-about-he-rings-pm-s-woman-problem-hits-peak-farce-20181129-p50j8b.html
The Adani scam has an established track record of graft & corruption by bribing government officials & they have caused untold health problems in Indian communities. As such they are seen as morally bankrupt but not by our greasy governments so you have to ask why we would allow a known dirty operator lose in Australia who can’t get funding from any financial backers.
Notwithstanding massive donations to both the LNP & the ALP, I reckon the feds have been funnelling massive payments routed through opaque foundations (such as the GBR charity) disguised as new funding, because there’s been no disclosure of the accounts.
If you get the time, have a look at consequences to the environment of allowing UNLIMITED free water to a filthy corporation from our Galilee Basin mate, it’s shattering.
Just an update to the razor. The Lib. SA government is shutting down 180 hospital beds and cutting another $300 million from the health portfolio.
They have also shut down the train networks over the weekend of the Test match and want to use taxpayer funds to build a hotel next the Adelaide oval. apparently 200 meters is too far for Liberals mates to walk to the oval from the hotels.
just a further update razor the SA Libs. have handed the running of the health Department to Korda Mentha consultants. Korda Mentha have already said the first thing to do is kick people to of Hospital beds faster. ( apparently people are enjoying the New Hospital for too long). So big job losses coming also in Front line services. The SA Libs. are claiming the auditor general is wrong about the $100 million they have allocated for “consultants”. Oh I also note you have made no mention of the cuts to the Law and order budget they made this year. They are removing CCTV’s from the city to “save” money even though for years they claimed Labor was not doing enough. They have supported a another New Private Prison though but that’s makes sense when you cut all manner of funding that crime will escalate.
I find it hard to believe Korda Mentha would say that. Provide a link or it didn’t happen.
it was in the Sunday Advertiser the only paper in Adelaide the article is written by a Newsocrp. writer. I dont have the extended subscription for the advertiser but read the hard copy sunday morning.
Korda Mentha are accountants who have been called in to try and fix the SA Health budget blowout.
They are not taking over the health dept
Korda Mentha are right. Of course people need to be “kicked out” ASAP. Although I hardly imagine they would be “kicked” out.
The last place one would want to linger is a hospital – where the possibility of infection is high with each unecessary passing day.
Ask JTI what he thinks.
Any truth in the analysis of the Vic elections that there was about 5% swing to Labor in the high population areas which were the recipients of much of the immigration in the last few years.
What you mean like Brighton, Caulfield, Hawthorn?
No idea – I just read a snippet in the OZ that made the statement and was wondering how accurate it was. No suburbs were mentioned – just the terminology high growth and hence immigrant catchment areas was the logic.
I didn’t read that. I did read of demographic changes in Hawthorn but nothing to do with ethnicity. I think the ‘hence’ is yours and you should reflect on that. Brighton, Hawthorn, Caulfield etc. These are where the big swings occurred. You do understand these suburbs are where most of Melbourne’s high wealth individuals live?
Finally found what triggered my question – it was in the Sun Herald on around Nov 27 which I do not have access to. I came across the “snippet” when browsing through the Bolt report.
This is all I know;
“Property Council analysis of election results showed that six out of 10 of the highest growth areas had swings to the ALP above the 4.7 per cent state average.
These included Yan Yean (13.1 per cent), Cranbourne (8.5 per cent), South Barwon (7.9 per cent) and Bass (6.7 per cent).”
Outer suburbs.