There has to be the first canary down the mine shaft.
When it comes to providing a how-to on moving from lockdowns to opening public spaces and economies, it’s the United States which will make the most fascinating viewing. With the end of the presidential stay at home order ending last week, states are now allowed to make their own decisions.
No one could say the US has handled the pandemic well thus far. It has broadened the already vast political divide in the country with gun-toting protesters in the Michigan Capitol building in Detroit all the way to shoulder to shoulder rallies in the US homes of progressivism, California and Massachusetts.
It is in these weird times one has to look for satire wherever it comes.
Brent Terhune is an American comedian who sports a MAGA hat and among other things demands his constitutional right to open carry an AR-15 assault rifle at a Build-A-Bear down at the mall.
“It’s what the founding fathers would have wanted,” he says deadpan.
The best satire is barely distinguishable from reality and so it is with the short videos Terhune routinely posts on social media.
Amusingly, many of those on the left think Terhune’s southern drawl, ferocious demeanour and ersatz COVID-19 dry cough that he intersperses throughout his rants, are a fervent call to arms against the stay at home orders. Terhune gleefully reposts his many progressive critics whose sense of humour left them long before the pandemic struck.
To those who have misplaced their capacity to laugh, here’s a hint: when someone kicks off a sentence, “The Constitution of these United States, which I haven’t read …” or “It got me to thinkin’ which I very rarely do …” he is probably not being serious.
Meanwhile, that most seismic of shock jocks, Alex Jones, is battling with the nutritional shortcomings from stay at home orders.
As far as I can tell Jones isn’t a satirist but might have a real talent for the caper. He has been eyeing off his neighbours to see which one he will eat first. His superpower is truth telling or so he says, and so Alex went off tap last week, pondering how he was going to gut, slice and dice his neighbours none of whom, unsurprisingly, were invited to comment.
I get the sense that Jones is comfortable in front of the broiler and may be only looking at choice cuts. At least Wisconsin serial killer, Ed Gein knew how to make a stew.
In the midst of this craziness, the US has begun to do away with state-based stay at home orders with 24 of the fifty states opening businesses including restaurants, entertainment and retail centres, generally with some form of mandated social distancing in place.
President Trump has signalled the Coronavirus Task Force headed by Vice-President Mike Pence will soon be shut down and replaced with “something in a different form”.
Some in the US refer to this as preparation for a second wave of infection but that is erroneous. The US remains deeply immersed in a first wave of COVID-19 infection that continues to spread across the continent.
Take New York State out of the statistics — where there has been a plateau in deaths and a decline in recorded cases — and there is growth in infection and death rates across the US.
Most alarming is epidemiological analysis that infection and death rates are rising more in rural America than in its urban centres.
The Kaiser Family Foundation, a non-profit, apolitical reporter on health care issues in the US determined that in rural counties in the US, “both cases and deaths are growing at a faster rate compared to metro counties. In the two-week period between April 13 and April 27, non-metro counties saw a 125 per cent increase in coronavirus cases (from 51 cases per 100,000 people to 115), on average, and a 169 per cent increase in deaths (from 1.6 deaths per 100,000 people to 4.4). Meanwhile, metro counties saw a 68 per cent increase in cases (from 195 cases per 100,000 people to 328) and a 113 per cent increase in deaths (from 8.0 deaths per 100,000 people to 17.0).”
The county with the highest death rate per capita in the US is Terrell County, Georgia a rural county 300 kilometres from Atlanta.
While areas of small population and low population density won’t provide the appalling death tolls seen in New York City, the lack of health care resources and logistics in rural areas mean higher death rates per capita.
Meanwhile Metro Atlanta continues to report sharp increases in recorded cases.
The real impact of opening up economies in terms of infection rates and deaths won’t be properly understood for four to six weeks. Those who scan the statistics now looking for evidence will not find much at present. It is later this month and into June when the data and then judgment will come.
One thing we should not expect is wholesale infection. There is something very odd about the way infections occur with SARS-COV-2. The Italian example is instructive. The south of the country has barely been touched by COVID-19 while infection and death rates in the north have exploded. We might put this down to population density but overall deaths due to respiratory illness which include influenza and COVID-19 and pneumonia unrelated to COVID-19 infection, have increased in Rome by only two per cent. Rome has a greater population density than that of Italy’s COVID-19 ground zero, Milan.
We could also examine Sweden’s attempts at fighting COVID-19 transmission which include no mandated lockdown. Sweden’s death rates are high, much more so than their other Scandinavian neighbours. In sheer number of deaths, Sweden sits between Turkey and Mexico.
Nevertheless, Sweden has a better idea of community infection rates than most other countries. It will be worth watching and offer lessons to policy makers in Australia.
But it is the US which will provide the most compelling case for how other countries, including this one, should go about the how and most critically the when on opening up their economies. It may very well be that what the US offers the rest of the world is a comprehensive template on how not to go about it.
This column was first published in The Australian on 6 May 2020
The Guardian is not my usual source of information, but this on the Indian state of Kerala is interesting. Third world, population of 35 million and 4 Covid deaths. A real lesson for Trump and Johnson. But they would probably prefer their deaths to a left wing approach.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/14/the-coronavirus-slayer-how-keralas-rock-star-health-minister-helped-save-it-from-covid-19
Wouldn’t imagine there would be too much testing going on NFY, and dead bodies laying around the streets are pretty common. As for post morgen serology it would be nonexistent.
Much less true of Kerala than states such as Bihar, Razor. It has the highest life expectancy of any Indian state at 74.9 years and dead bodies laying on the streets are not common. It was quarantining and tracking that was effective. Not to say there may not be a second wave, of course.
Bloody Bihar, groan.
https://thehighwire.com/doctor-who-predicted-covid-19-answers-all/
I was sceptical at first when my scientist, greenie daughter urged me to watch this. Thought it may be another crank thing. But over a year ago, Dr Zach Bush actually did predict that another virus would originate in Hubei
But I have to confess it had me absorbed. Especially his analysis of why it is killing people. – and why we have failed to treat it correctly. The culminating 15 minutes is very moving if you can see it through to this point.
So if anyone has the time in iso to watch, let me know what you thought.
It covers many scientific aspects on what COVID-19 actually is – which is fascinating.
He ends with talking about the stats amongst the elderly – and I quote ”letting our revered elderly die utterly alone because of our fear of this virus is a crime against humanity – tearing apart the very fabric of what it means to be human”
I’m glad I watched it. I think perhaps every politician should be tied down and made to watch it right to the end.
TBLS, I think you raised a question as to the legal standing of some of the lockdown measures.
This from Glenn Reynolds is spot on I think.
“The courts will let the government move fast in a crisis, but not forever”.
The Wisconsin legislature sued the governor and won in the state Supreme Court yesterday. The bars in my hometown reopened. The Michigan legislature’s suit against their governor will be heard today. So, yeah.
I think there’s 10 states still locked down and lawsuits against most of them are in the works.
Yes indeed, jack. I wonder how the state premiers are going to adapt to losing the autocratic power they are currently wielding.
I suspect not very well mate.
I see your wrecking ball of a Premier is beginning his trashing of the (up to now) beautifully pristine Dove Lake.
As per usual the Libs are in full-on destruction mode in Tasmania & have been busy blatantly, secretly stepping up land clearing in the Eastern States since the bushfires. Just when the remaining endangered koalas need unburnt eucalypt forests to survive. What a disgrace.
I was interested in your view – if you have one – on the relentless expansion of the Commonwealth’s policy footprint beyond the areas explicitly listed in the constitution. Can the federal health minister dictating trade conditions for every type of high street business or the PM concerning himself with the legal duration of a haircut be reasonably described as matters of national importance?
On the operation of the courts, I’m starting to get a little worried about the growing enthusiasm for curtailing class actions, including in the AG’s office. I have a strong sense that our governments and their agents will be doing their damnedest to avoid any real examination of their actions for fear of exposing themselves to liability for unlawful or disproportionate responses. Private legal actions may be the best hope of getting some real answers and I can see the potential for laws being passed to curtail that possibility under the guise of protecting the community from unscrupulous litigation funders.
yes TBLS, it’s been a trend towards Commonwealth takeover for years, but I think that Federalism has worked quite well in the virus context.
The states and territories have quite properly had different responses and timetables and that has been a good thing, at least that’s my observation from here.
I did notice that the much vaunted EU has lost most of it’s influence and prestige. As soon as the pressure of a real crisis rather than in imaginary one went on the member states reverted to being independent nation states again, borders re-appeared etc.
Nobody bothered to ask what the bureaucrats in Brussels s thought about it all because it was plain that it didn’t much matter what they thought.
Good thing I checked the NT News:
JUSTICE Minister Natasha Fyles says prisoners ‘weren’t happy for some reason’ after more than 20 inmates escaped their cells and climbed onto the roofs of Darwin Correctional Centre overnight
*laugh* Really?
You gotta wonder sometimes.
Kim Carr is at it again with Godwin’s violations. Empty vessels and all that.
Kim Jong Carr – the sort of politician that only the Victorian branch of the ALP could produce and keep a straight face.
Pandemics in the past have ended not with the virus going away — the 1918, 1957 and 1968 strains are still with us. They ended when people decided to accept and adapt to the virus’s existence.
There was a vaccine quickly developed in the US for the 1957 strain. In 1968 widespread availability of antibiotics reduced deaths via secondary infection. The 1918 outbreak had none of those things and stands as the greatest killer epidemic outside the Black Death. Spanish flu remained active for more than 12 months, the second wave worse than the first. There were no available treatments besides quarantine and separation. There are well recorded examples of cities locking down effectively suffering low transmission and death rates e.g. St Louis which got it right v Philly which did not.
There may be no great second wave of COVID-19. We don’t know. Most of the world is still in the throes of the first wave. Is it seasonal? Will it mutate making a vaccine problematic? Why does it affect some regions and not others? The experts are learning on the job. Epidemiologists point to herd immunity in the absence of a vaccine kicking in at 85-90 per cent infection. Mortality rates won’t be finalised until this has passed but even at a fraction of one per cent, deaths would be extremely high.
I saw Australia’s CMO give evidence in the Senate yesterday predicting 30 million cases globally by this time next year. At current rate, that’s a tick under three million dead. I get that people want to return to normality. So do I. But the fact is things won’t be normal for some time with social distancing and hygiene our best weapons without a vaccine. Communities that don’t practice social distancing are at high risk.
Policy makers need to balance economic factors against health care and public safety. These are not easy decisions to make. They must rely on expert advice but have to bear in mind the experts themselves have the ‘L’ plates on.
High levels of effective testing over a wide criteria and track and trace of infections are the best tools available to governments.
Those that haven’t done that or haven’t done it well to date are more often than not the countries that have suffered most. In the unlikely event that it disappears as SARS did, it is hard to see that changing in the foreseeable future.
I can accept governments playing catch up where their communities got spanked hard and early like Italy and Spain. The UK is at the other end of the scale. I saw footage of workers piling out of a double decker bus yesterday. Must have been 50 people bouncing out the doors. This is a country that does not practice track and trace, has low levels of effective testing. Critical data with big holes. For mine, the UK has been the worst of all the developed countries in dealing with SARS-CoV-2. Second highest number of deaths and they are only counting deaths in hospitals. The real number may be higher than the US. There is an almighty crap shoot going on there in opening up.
You’ll probably all have seen this by the time the post goes up, but it’s worth i:
https://twitter.com/LorenzoTheCat/status/1260578275157594124?s=20
Vegetarian cats!? One is chomping on a raw beetroot.
We have only 25 active cases here, Jack and no new cases for 6 days as I write. But I wonder what will happen when they open things up. I’m in no hurry to go dashing off to the shops – happy enough to carry on, as is – and wait and see if there is a second wave before I get all excited about a possible trip north to visit the kids.
Beautiful tranquil walk at the base of the mountain this morning – crisp, damp forest, bird calls – and no one around. Bliss. Nature certainly is enjoying things whilst we are all locked up.
Im trying to build a house Boa! Do you know how hard it is to build a house in Tassie from South Australia. You should see me, Im a headcase with a perpetual bad hair day happening from lack of sleep.
All I want to do, is get across that cess pit victoria without stopping get on the boat, and be on site for my build. Not too much to ask is it?
Bloody virus, bloody victorians, mutter mutter nutter mutterd
cheers
Best of luck with that wrath. 💚
I envy you moving to the greenest state. The border closures must end soon I hope.
Hang in there. They will need to lessen the straitjacket soon. Even given how compliant Aussies tend to be, the natives are getting restless.
Jeez, steady on with the Victoria bashing! Sure, we produce our fair share of stinking floaters but calling the whole joint a “cess pit” is a bit much. Melbourne is, maybe.
I say Jack, that is one of the best critiques/summaries of COV-19 I’ve come across. Thank you.
Dunno about the UK being the worst Jack.
If one isolates NY State , population 20 million, from the rest of the US, it has 335,000 cases.
UK, with a population of 65 million has 229,000.
Much of the blame in NY can be slated back to NY’s Democratic Governor for some of his actions.
The politics of Corona in the US are so rancid though, it hard to put a finger on who did what when.
New York is not a country. Any blame for the POTUS? Wasn’t that him in March saying it would all go away, nothing to worry about, 15 cases soon to be none?
I am not saying Trump is blameless – some of the things that he said were echoing what some so called experts were saying at the time and some of the idiocy was all of his own making.
However, he cannot control people like the NY Governor who, for example, insisted on old folks homes taking in Covid-19 positive people when there were beds elsewhere or started cleaning the underground very late in the piece.
One needs to look at the actions of governors in all the different states, recognize the rancid politics and partisan reporting of politics in the US as well as the limitations on all jurisdictions before sheeting the blame on to one person as certain sections of the media are wont to do.
Meanwhile, the real cause of the problem, the CCP, hardly gets a mention in that same media.
I remember the “soon to be none” statement JTI. What a stupid man.
Trumps facial tanning formula is looking more like the colour of a faeces explosion lately but at least he wears his goggles. 🤮🤯
spot on, no-one really has the right answers to this, and if someone claims to, start disbelieving them whoever they are.
I would say that Test and Trace and then isolate the risky seems, I repeat, seems to work.
Wide spread testing, jury still out.
Lockdown, hasn’t happened in Taiwan, HK, very good results without it. Who knows why, maybe better hygiene and mask wearing, or earlier border closing.
Amusingly Macau has done very well, but then all they had to do to close the border was close the casinos and a couple of building sites. Bingo, no visitors at all. Of course , no economy either.
Jack mentioned a busy bus in London, well our trains and buses have been busier than that, but folks wear masks, can’t get on a bus without them, frequent sanitising etc, it is very difficult to work out what works.
Stay well friends
Well i can understand why they felt it necessary to appoint a CMO for Mental Health yesterday.
This morning I awoke to a plethora of pessimism on the news. Both health and economic.
The world would appear to be in a state of bewildered confusion as to how to deal with this virus. And save themselves from goung right down the economic gurgler. Trump just fires anyone who dares raise an opinion contrary to his insane ideas – and the UK doesn’t seem to know what it’s doing.
That’s why i found that link I posted higher up particularly interesting .
Some pubs open today so no doubt we will witness a Bunnings-like rush of drunken stupidity.
So today I am depressed. Setting off for a soothing forest walk on my beloved mountain – that developers are chafing at the bit to ruin with a wretched cablecar.
Bah humbug – have a good day, all
Go you!!
Half of them dont even think its real yet. Or their effing god is going to ‘save the usa’ ffks.
Its bad. I cant believe how many dont understand how bad. Stupidity and greed will lead to millions more deaths.
Prepare for when it hits. Next waves will be worse. Oh, and Victoria, not a chance of getting clean. Its gonna be a big festering sore none of us can get around for ages.
Headline in tomorrow’s Courier Mail: Dick seeks to acquire Virgin.
There will have to be a name change because as everyone knows there are no virgins in Queensland.
As the worlds only second recorded immaculate conception birth I know that is not true JTI.
Honey, youre mum is not a saint. “She Bonks” lol
Nor three Wise Men
Or, if the ruling Labor Party is any indication, 3 Wise Women.
Now, now, or tsk tsk. Oh, hang on, you must be talking about Qld pollies, yep, they’re all pretty bleeped.
Bye the bye Jack, I see Risdale got another 3 years on top. Thing that I find a bit strange, what would be the sentence had been if he had raped and sexually assaulted 69 females over the age of consent, for a total of 179 offences. Surely they would have locked him up and thrown away the key? I have trouble looking at his photo for more than about one second…..gives me the creeps the dirty s.o.b.
His first round of convictions in 93 was very dodgy. Very serious offences not pursued but even then convicted of multiple sexual assaults and received 12 months and served three from memory. Three years were added to his minimum yesterday. Eligible for parole in 2025. He will almost certainly die in jail.
As he deserves to JTI. It’s matters like this that make me want to believe in heaven and hell because if there is such a thing that maggot will be feeling the heat pretty soon.
Hear hear.
He’ll want to grab it soon, and no pussy-footing around.
Good one, Dwight!
I ain’t touching that one since it was reported Dick wanted to “give it a good crack”.
So …., it seems the folks in China have gone off Aussie beef. But no worries, their wet markets are still open.
There are quite a few lessons to be learned from Vietnam but one of them is probably every household should have a supply of facemasks and hand wash.
It is pretty impressive performance
I am curious as to why the wearing of face masks here was not enforced – not enough to go around or a genuine belief that they were not necessary?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-13/coronavirus-vietnam-no-deaths-success-in-south-east-asia/12237314
But once again, experience gained from SARS.
Interesting video from the US. Prisoners trying to infect themselves with the Wuhan virus in hopes they can get released. Any coincidence it’s LA?
I keep saying that Victoria is the California of Australia – not as an economic powerhouse but a source of lunacy.