Predicting the election result has been portrayed as a battle over who will be more accurate, the polls or the betting markets. The polls show a narrowing of Labor’s lead while the head-to-head betting markets have barely budged.
Averaged across the betting agencies, Labor remains firm favourite to be the next sworn in government at $1.25 with the Coalition at $3.85. Prices of $4 or more are still available for the Coalition. Ladbrokes is offering $4.25. Sportsbet $3.75. There has been almost no movement there.
But peering into the underbelly of the betting markets, there has been a noticeable tightening.
Let’s go to our starting point before the election was called. Redistributions have created two new seats, Bean (ACT) and Fraser (VIC). Both will go to Labor. Redrawing electoral boundaries in Victoria have made two Liberal seats nominally Labor, Dunkley and Corangamite. The Labor held seat of Port Adelaide has been wiped from the electoral map, giving Labor a nominal three seat gain and 72 seats and the Liberals on 73, with the loss of Wentworth in the by-election in October last year.
I have placed Bean, Fraser, Dunkley and Corangamite in the Labor column. There has been some movement in Corangamite with Labor still favoured to win at $1.38 to Sarah Henderson’s $2.82 but Labor is the unbackable favourite in the other three.
Two weeks ago, the seat spread markets showed Labor favoured to win 86-90 seats at $2.70, 81-85 seats at $3.50 and 91 to 100 seats at $4.85. That has narrowed somewhat with Labor’s projected seat total of 81 to 86 seats sharing favouritism with an 86 to 90 seat win at $2.75. Labor is now at $4.00 to sneak into government (76 to 80 seats) and paying $4.50 to win 91 to 100 seats. Labor falling short of a majority (71 to 75 seats) stands at $8.00.
On the individual seat analysis taken from two betting agencies, Labor is favoured to win 85 seats, the Coalition 60 with six on the crossbenches. The markets were predicting Labor to win 89 seats a fortnight ago.
The number of seats Labor was favoured to gain from the Coalition at very short odds ($1.34 or less) has changed from seven to five seats, two in New South Wales — Reid (Labor $1.17, Coalition $4.00), Gilmore (Labor $1.15, Coalition $5.00, Nationals $6.00), Forde in Queensland (Labor $1.34, Coalition $3.10), Hasluck in Western Australia (Labor $1.34, Coalition $3.15) and Chisholm in Victoria (Labor $1.17, Coalition $4.75).
Banks in New South Wales has shifted towards the Coalition (Labor $2.25, Coalition $1.60), as has Boothby in South Australia (Labor $2.05, Coalition $1.70) and Dawson in Queensland (Labor $1.91, Coalition $1.80). Labor is now also favoured to lose its marginal Queensland seat of Herbert (Labor $2.15, Coalition $1.62).
Besides Herbert, the markets show the Coalition is looking at possible gains in Wentworth and Lindsay in New South Wales, Indi in Victoria and Braddon and Bass in Tasmania. The quotes in this band of five seats are all neck and neck with the exception of Wentworth where the bookies have installed Dave Sharma ($1.25) a solid favourite ahead of Kerryn Phelps ($3.55).
If Phelps loses on May 18, it would mean she was a member for almost seven months but was only required to attend the parliament for seven sitting days, which I guess might be some sort of unwelcome record. In terms of sitting days, would hers be the shortest parliamentary career in Australian political history? I’ll leave that to the trivia nuts.
If the Coalition can pick up all six, it gets to 79 seats and can afford to lose three elsewhere around the country and still form majority government.
It seems unlikely that it might only lose three but therein lies Scott Morrison’s narrow path to the Lodge.
In the band of 15 Liberal-held marginals where Labor is favoured to win, five as shown earlier are short odds-on. Three seats (Deakin in Victoria and Pearce and Stirling in WA) are tight with Labor slight favourites. The remainder (Flynn, Petrie, Dickson and Bonner in Queensland; Robertson in New South Wales; Swan in Western Australia and La Trobe in Victoria) show Labor as warm but hardly red-hot favourites, paying between $1.40 and $1.65.
When we look at Labor held marginals there is not much else the Coalition might put in the maybe column. Top of that list is Cowan in WA where Labor’s Anne Aly is $1.15 to retain, the Coalition at $4.50. It doesn’t get any better scrolling down the Labor marginal column with Labor at $1.11 to hold Longman in Queensland, the LNP $5.00, the next on the list.
There is a prospect that Labor might lose seats to the Greens, the most likely the old seat of Melbourne Ports now called Macnamara where Labor leads narrowly in the betting $1.70 to the Greens $2.15. Elsewhere Labor is a lot firmer to retain Cooper (formerly Batman) $1.14, and Wills, $1.17, under threat from the Greens at $4.50 and $7.50 respectively.
The Coalition faces the loss of seats to independents. Rob Oakeshott ($1.55) is a firm favourite to win Cowper from the Nationals ($2.20). Sussan Ley is neck and neck on the betting with independent Kevin Mack in Farrer. In Warringah Tony Abbott ($1.78) is just ahead of Zali Steggall ($2.00) but the independent candidate’s price has come in from $2.70 on Friday night after the two went head to head in a Sky News debate.
The betting markets are merely a guide, of course. They do get it wrong. As an illustration, in the 2016 federal election, favourites were beaten in eight of the 150 seats. Six of those went to Labor against the odds. Getting it wrong by eight seats this time could see the Coalition back in government.
The most laughable failures aren’t hard to find either. In the 2014 South Australian state election, the Liberals were installed at $1.04 favourites to win government with Labor paying $15. The Liberals won 53 per cent of the 2PP vote but Labor won 23 seats and formed government. Globally, we need look no further than the 2016 US Presidential election where Hillary Clinton was an unbackable favourite and Donald Trump at five to one. And we all know how that panned out.
In politics, as in sport, long shots get up. They just don’t get up very often.
The betting markets and the polling are essentially showing the same things. The gap between the installed favourites, Labor, and the Coalition as the underdog is narrowing. At this point it would seem not to be narrowing enough.
The 2019 federal election remains Bill Shorten’s to lose.
The article was first published in The Australian on 8 May 2019
The wellbeing index adjusts GDP to put a dollar figure on changes in the nation’s health, know how, income distribution, work life and the environment. It provides a superior gauge of national progress than traditional economic indicators. Wellbeing rose by an average of 2.2 per cent each year during Labor’s last six-year term compared with an average annual growth of 1.4 per cent during the Coalition’s six years in office.
Given the Labor had to protect 100’s of thousands of jobs during the GFC it is clear Labor is much better for the Australian Economy and Australian society. No surprises.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/our-wellbeing-improved-more-under-labor-report-20190510-p51m4t.html
Thanks Milton. It is very exciting and enlightening to know what Milton is thinking.
Gee shucks, Jean. That appeared out of nowhere just like free floating anxiety. And i’ll miss you too, Baptiste.
aunty admitting they cant spin lnp as electable
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-11/federal-election-2019-shorten-finds-feet-morrison-panics/11102786?pfmredir=sm
Penny was an OK kind of Finance Minister and was readily accepted by the majority of Australians who had no problems with her marital set up.
I wonder how she will go as Foreign Minister given the countries she will have to deal with and which are very important to us.
It is going to be very interesting to watch.
Penny Wong will become our best shading even Gareth. Who was a class above the rest.
you must have been talking to Gareth
I think most people have already made up their minds. People in general seem to have largely ignored the campaign and anecdotally its seems there’s never been less water-cooler chat. People don’t want a Labor government as much as they want rid of the Liberal governemt and they made their minds up last year.
Interestingly Liberal frontbenchers are showing up on Sky News at night. Such preaching to the converted during a campaign suggests their internal polling tells them the same.
From the Betoota Advocate, the last independent paper in the nation. The AEC have got this one nailed.
https://www.betootaadvocate.com/entertainment/electoral-commission-rules-any-penises-drawn-on-ballot-papers-will-count-as-a-vote-for-greens/?fbclid=IwAR3HrrZE5usv1PmURMzZwZk-MLXO79kEb4oDDNXRpuC7CQbozL-VPI0Cr3A
It is clear to see from the time the coalitions”policies” started to take effect the Australian economy has dropped significantly. No Surprises.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/may/09/the-bar-must-be-low-if-the-economys-fundamentals-are-as-sound-as-josh-frydenberg-claims
Why do you always cite economic fringe dwellers? Sorry, I know the answer.
D white those you call “fringe dwellers” became recognized a couple of decade ago. time you gave up the Friedman crusade.
It’s beyond me how any thinking Australian could vote for the liars & the cheats of the Coalition. We’re facing a scientifically proven global crisis with AGW’s increasingly catastrophic weather events yet some will still plod empty-headed into voting booths on the 18th & not give a rats arse about the enormity of the future climate events facing the next generation & their young families.
I’m very proud to be a Greenie but my primary vote goes to Labor this time & this Coalition of 1950’s Crackpots must go dead last.
Kick them out convincingly in disgrace.
They deserve nothing less than annihilation. 😝
How was China? Dd you get to Wu Zetian’s tomb? Hope you avoided tummy upsets.
Just caught up with your earlier post about your trip. That’s not a pun about your unfortunate fall. Thanks for your polite and civil farewell. I came to the blog for the footy tips, I’ve found a repository ( NOT suppository) of opinion that probably has no parallel in any media, and I’m baffled it doesn’t have a wider audience. I’ve avoided political comment here, as politics as it stands is a field devoid of any honor, and burdened with a poverty of ideas. Somewhere, somehow, mankind, not just our nation has to develop a system that is more equitable, simpler and more transparent. Doing politics with the same tired ideas as the Romans had 2000 years ago can’t continue into an indefinite future. How and what that system could or should contain is what the global debate should be, not recycling stale, tried and failed systems of the past. I’ve noted your passion for global and local reform in a variety of fields, and I have agreed and disagreed privately but we do share some of those passions, and I know that although this forum may be gone, our shared interests, particularly for the marine environment, will continue. I will know you’re out there somewhere. Good luck, continue the fight for your beliefs with the studied quietude, and manners you’ve shown here.
Thanks Wissendorf, what a lovely thing to say to me.
Take care of yourself also.
“If they breathe, they live
If they live, they feel
If they feel, they love
If they love, they are aware
If they are aware, they have a soul.” 🐬
Anthony Douglas Williams
And Shorten is beyond furphies? Really?
Tony Abbott is evil
No, not at all Dwight. I never said that.
But Labor is the change this country desperately needs for at least the next 6 years to get the Fiberals corporate donor puppeteers away from their seat at the table.
Be nice to see Murdoch lose his seat at the table of national politics too but his anti-Labor newspaper stronghold clearly dictates his preference ad nauseam. Should be illegal but it is what it is. This week will likely be another dodgy assault on unions, a fair go for low income battlers & their favourite swastika costumes will likely feature in their dirty tricks.. Bring it on I say. Voters can’t be swayed by bs now. 👹☹
Seems as though we are spoilt for choice as to who may, or may not, be sitting at that emblematic table you refer to Bella.
Its either Murdock or the CFMMEU, eh?
Hear Hear Tony Koch Hear Hear
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/09/for-30-years-i-worked-for-news-corp-papers-now-all-i-see-is-shameful-bias
Checked Tony’s Twitter feed. He’s as mad as you are.
I see another Newscorp guy has spoken out about how mad that newsroom is
What Rick said was fair enough.
this is the bloke I was talking about I suppose he is mad also. Is it that we are mad for daring to question? What about when Michael West when he stands up to Newscorp is he mad also? Come on man.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/may/10/news-corp-rick-morton-australian
take a look at Koch’s Twitter feed. He sounds just like you.
I see Mr Koch is receiving a lot of support from many in the industry even from Chris Mitchell? I posted the Koch article to offer a different perspective of this election than the usual conservative one that has always held sway on your blog. As I pointed out on the last blog with the attempted smear job using Shortens Mum I think Newscorp have gone too far and people are waking up to their obvious bias. When former and current employees start highlighting it is more than just “mad” left wing gay muslim, marxist latte sipping barista rhetoric. Thanks again for the opportunity over the last decade or more to put my mad views forward.
By the way I saw an article the other day about Brendan Gale being touted as a possible AFL CEO. I am sure one of your early articles years back was about how he had used AFLPA funds to educate himself and move on it was either him of Tim May who did a similar thing that is where my Dismayed name came from but then the crowd on your blog just continued to leave me Dismayed.
Not Dismayed, try one of these, disenchanteddisengageddisengagingdisenshroudeddisepalousdisertdisfavorabledisgracefuldisgraciousdisgracivedisgusteddisgustfuldisgustingdishabiteddisharmoniousdishearteneddishearteningdisheveledisheveleddishevelleddishingdishonestdishonorabledishonorarydisillusioneddisimpassioneddisinclineddisincorporatedisingenuousdisinhabiteddisintegrabledisinterestdisinteresteddisinterestingdisjointdisjointeddisjunctdisjunctivedisklessdislealdislikefuldislocatedisloyaldismaldismayeddismayfuldismettleddismissivedisnatureddisobedientdisobeisantdisobligatorydisobligingdisordeineddisordereddisorderlydisordinatedisorganizeddisorienteddisorientingdisparadise
Brilliant Jack. Absolutely brilliant reply!
About time you called him out!
See, it’s not us, it’s you.
Are Rugby Australia guilty of anti-Semitism?
Personally, I have no interest in what Folau has to say. I hear and read and write nonsense every day with rarely any ill, or long lasting effects. Football players, like retired ex-PM’s, are best ignored by the media.
As for Folau:
“The 30-year-old devout Christian took to Instagram to proclaim “hell awaits” for “drunks, homosexuals, adulterers, liars, fornicators, thieves, atheists, idolators”.”
Good God hell is going to be crowded. Hopefully they have a wing for politicians and journalists! I’m not mixing with that rabble.
Do you think as you descend into the bowels of Hell you might regret never having experimented with homosexuality , adultery, lying, fornication, thieving , atheism and idolatry?
I mean, geez, you might as well be shot for a sheep , or several, as for a lamb!
A bit sad I say to spend eternity, which is a long time, wondering.
I’m thinking and a hoping the Green’s will be history by the end of this election. I’m also of the opinion that in uncertain economic times that the voters will stick with the status quo and not take the risk of Shorten and Bowen at the levers. Images of Rudd and Gillard and the thought bubbles of Keating do Labor no favours.
One of the downsides to a ScoMo victory will be a delay in the return of Abbott, but return he will!
ps. Penny Wong needs to get over herself and learn some manners/basic civility. She is becoming more of a tedious bore.
Abbott will be lucky to keep his seat Milt, I reckon he’s gone.
Will be back up at Forestville Saturday morning handing out Zali leaflets, the Labor candidate has given up.
Well done tracky I think I saw you on tweeter. Then again I think i saw Yvonnetas on tweeter in Norway wearing a hession sack and tie dyed scarfe. and she was talking all sorts of Environmental stuff
Fact-free zone there.
But YNWA
a mendacious tedious bore.