Predicting the election result has been portrayed as a battle over who will be more accurate, the polls or the betting markets. The polls show a narrowing of Labor’s lead while the head-to-head betting markets have barely budged.
Averaged across the betting agencies, Labor remains firm favourite to be the next sworn in government at $1.25 with the Coalition at $3.85. Prices of $4 or more are still available for the Coalition. Ladbrokes is offering $4.25. Sportsbet $3.75. There has been almost no movement there.
But peering into the underbelly of the betting markets, there has been a noticeable tightening.
Let’s go to our starting point before the election was called. Redistributions have created two new seats, Bean (ACT) and Fraser (VIC). Both will go to Labor. Redrawing electoral boundaries in Victoria have made two Liberal seats nominally Labor, Dunkley and Corangamite. The Labor held seat of Port Adelaide has been wiped from the electoral map, giving Labor a nominal three seat gain and 72 seats and the Liberals on 73, with the loss of Wentworth in the by-election in October last year.
I have placed Bean, Fraser, Dunkley and Corangamite in the Labor column. There has been some movement in Corangamite with Labor still favoured to win at $1.38 to Sarah Henderson’s $2.82 but Labor is the unbackable favourite in the other three.
Two weeks ago, the seat spread markets showed Labor favoured to win 86-90 seats at $2.70, 81-85 seats at $3.50 and 91 to 100 seats at $4.85. That has narrowed somewhat with Labor’s projected seat total of 81 to 86 seats sharing favouritism with an 86 to 90 seat win at $2.75. Labor is now at $4.00 to sneak into government (76 to 80 seats) and paying $4.50 to win 91 to 100 seats. Labor falling short of a majority (71 to 75 seats) stands at $8.00.
On the individual seat analysis taken from two betting agencies, Labor is favoured to win 85 seats, the Coalition 60 with six on the crossbenches. The markets were predicting Labor to win 89 seats a fortnight ago.
The number of seats Labor was favoured to gain from the Coalition at very short odds ($1.34 or less) has changed from seven to five seats, two in New South Wales — Reid (Labor $1.17, Coalition $4.00), Gilmore (Labor $1.15, Coalition $5.00, Nationals $6.00), Forde in Queensland (Labor $1.34, Coalition $3.10), Hasluck in Western Australia (Labor $1.34, Coalition $3.15) and Chisholm in Victoria (Labor $1.17, Coalition $4.75).
Banks in New South Wales has shifted towards the Coalition (Labor $2.25, Coalition $1.60), as has Boothby in South Australia (Labor $2.05, Coalition $1.70) and Dawson in Queensland (Labor $1.91, Coalition $1.80). Labor is now also favoured to lose its marginal Queensland seat of Herbert (Labor $2.15, Coalition $1.62).
Besides Herbert, the markets show the Coalition is looking at possible gains in Wentworth and Lindsay in New South Wales, Indi in Victoria and Braddon and Bass in Tasmania. The quotes in this band of five seats are all neck and neck with the exception of Wentworth where the bookies have installed Dave Sharma ($1.25) a solid favourite ahead of Kerryn Phelps ($3.55).
If Phelps loses on May 18, it would mean she was a member for almost seven months but was only required to attend the parliament for seven sitting days, which I guess might be some sort of unwelcome record. In terms of sitting days, would hers be the shortest parliamentary career in Australian political history? I’ll leave that to the trivia nuts.
If the Coalition can pick up all six, it gets to 79 seats and can afford to lose three elsewhere around the country and still form majority government.
It seems unlikely that it might only lose three but therein lies Scott Morrison’s narrow path to the Lodge.
In the band of 15 Liberal-held marginals where Labor is favoured to win, five as shown earlier are short odds-on. Three seats (Deakin in Victoria and Pearce and Stirling in WA) are tight with Labor slight favourites. The remainder (Flynn, Petrie, Dickson and Bonner in Queensland; Robertson in New South Wales; Swan in Western Australia and La Trobe in Victoria) show Labor as warm but hardly red-hot favourites, paying between $1.40 and $1.65.
When we look at Labor held marginals there is not much else the Coalition might put in the maybe column. Top of that list is Cowan in WA where Labor’s Anne Aly is $1.15 to retain, the Coalition at $4.50. It doesn’t get any better scrolling down the Labor marginal column with Labor at $1.11 to hold Longman in Queensland, the LNP $5.00, the next on the list.
There is a prospect that Labor might lose seats to the Greens, the most likely the old seat of Melbourne Ports now called Macnamara where Labor leads narrowly in the betting $1.70 to the Greens $2.15. Elsewhere Labor is a lot firmer to retain Cooper (formerly Batman) $1.14, and Wills, $1.17, under threat from the Greens at $4.50 and $7.50 respectively.
The Coalition faces the loss of seats to independents. Rob Oakeshott ($1.55) is a firm favourite to win Cowper from the Nationals ($2.20). Sussan Ley is neck and neck on the betting with independent Kevin Mack in Farrer. In Warringah Tony Abbott ($1.78) is just ahead of Zali Steggall ($2.00) but the independent candidate’s price has come in from $2.70 on Friday night after the two went head to head in a Sky News debate.
The betting markets are merely a guide, of course. They do get it wrong. As an illustration, in the 2016 federal election, favourites were beaten in eight of the 150 seats. Six of those went to Labor against the odds. Getting it wrong by eight seats this time could see the Coalition back in government.
The most laughable failures aren’t hard to find either. In the 2014 South Australian state election, the Liberals were installed at $1.04 favourites to win government with Labor paying $15. The Liberals won 53 per cent of the 2PP vote but Labor won 23 seats and formed government. Globally, we need look no further than the 2016 US Presidential election where Hillary Clinton was an unbackable favourite and Donald Trump at five to one. And we all know how that panned out.
In politics, as in sport, long shots get up. They just don’t get up very often.
The betting markets and the polling are essentially showing the same things. The gap between the installed favourites, Labor, and the Coalition as the underdog is narrowing. At this point it would seem not to be narrowing enough.
The 2019 federal election remains Bill Shorten’s to lose.
The article was first published in The Australian on 8 May 2019
Anything but a hung parliament for mine.
And an amusing piece on the news re Shorten not appearing at the Press Club during the campaign. The last contender not go there was John Hewson!
Well done Johnno in winning the epl tipping comp. I expect you could or do make a living from it. Still, it was a close run between 1st and 4th. Thanks very much Tracy for running the show, you’re the goods. And special thanks to Jack and Trivalve for missing countless weeks, thus enabling me to be (just) 5th out of 7. You blokes are hopeless!!Chelsea a respectable 3rd and in champions league.
Go Watford and Spurs!!!
j
I’m of the view that if people(s) were required to have a 30-50% deposit on a property then that would lower the cost of property. I’ve also been a bit soc/dem leaning in believing govts of all stripe should build decent, solid, medium density housing (preferably not designed by some would be architect – so 3 bedrooms, storage, kitchen, separate dining room and a decent balcony/courtyard and communal gardens. Cafes. bistro’s, laundromats. tabacs, newsagents, bars etc on the ground floor. No parking required as trams, buses and bike paths in close proximity. Jeez I’m a enviro/socialist!
I’m of the view that if people(s) were required to have a 30-50% deposit on a property then that would lower the cost of property. I’ve also been a bit soc/dem leaning in believing govts of all stripe should build decent, solid, medium density housing (preferably not designed by some would be architect – so 3 bedrooms, storage, kitchen, separate dining room and a decent balcony/courtyard and communal gardens. Cafes. bistro’s, laundromats. tabacs, newsagents, bars etc on the ground floor. No parking required as trams, buses and bike paths in close proximity.) Well that’s my inner utopian coming out. Perhaps a servants room should be built into my design for the illegals?
btw, well done Johnno in a close race. Thanks Tracy for running the show. And special thanks to Jack and Trivalve for missing countless rounds and making me a respectable fifth out of 7! And you were still close to me. I should stick with picking my nose.
Chelsea a respectable 3rd (in a 2 horse race) and in the Euro!!!!
Go Watford, Go Spurs!!!
Keating calls Dutton the ‘most mean-spirited’ man he’d seen in oz politics in 50 yrs! Fair suck of the sauce bottle comrade, or is he just winding up me old French clock? This is the chap who as treasurer introduced HECS fees (indebting people from whence they finish their tertiary education), introduced compulsory superannuation (forcibly taking money from anyone working, and also those who pay hecs fees as well, until they are, what is it now?, possible 75), and as PM introduced compulsory detention! Moreover he expected those in detention to pay for it. And as an ex-PM, he has tried repeatedly to traduce the legacy of the great PM Hawke, and even made a terrible attack on the deceased, but not buried, Paddy McGuinness. (https://www.smh.com.au/business/keating-devalues-his-own-reputation-with-vitriolic-attack-20080131-1pdg.html – with an apt glass jaw comment). All this from a bloke who sits up at night in his salon thinking up mean things to say about his fellow politicians, the opposition, gays and poodles, and yet not a word of thanks, or credit, to Sir Keith Campbell. And it’s fair to say the latter may have not envisaged the parlous state of how our economy stands now. At least we don’t have the
17% interest rates that we had to have under Keating. A dud then and plain silly now.
Sadly an error has occurred, but whatever will be will be and Doris has had her Day. Still, 97 yrs, mostly healthy are not to be sneezed at.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bN2R5xAGl24
I do believe she was ‘the goods’ in her time or so my Mum says.
She calls her one of the original born entertainers Jean.
BTW thank-you for years of intelligent, educational & bloody funny posts JB, this blog would not have been the same without your witty repartee so I for one will miss you. Take care mate.
Oh and “Give em heaps”!!
My best, Bella 💚