Predicting the election result has been portrayed as a battle over who will be more accurate, the polls or the betting markets. The polls show a narrowing of Labor’s lead while the head-to-head betting markets have barely budged.
Averaged across the betting agencies, Labor remains firm favourite to be the next sworn in government at $1.25 with the Coalition at $3.85. Prices of $4 or more are still available for the Coalition. Ladbrokes is offering $4.25. Sportsbet $3.75. There has been almost no movement there.
But peering into the underbelly of the betting markets, there has been a noticeable tightening.
Let’s go to our starting point before the election was called. Redistributions have created two new seats, Bean (ACT) and Fraser (VIC). Both will go to Labor. Redrawing electoral boundaries in Victoria have made two Liberal seats nominally Labor, Dunkley and Corangamite. The Labor held seat of Port Adelaide has been wiped from the electoral map, giving Labor a nominal three seat gain and 72 seats and the Liberals on 73, with the loss of Wentworth in the by-election in October last year.
I have placed Bean, Fraser, Dunkley and Corangamite in the Labor column. There has been some movement in Corangamite with Labor still favoured to win at $1.38 to Sarah Henderson’s $2.82 but Labor is the unbackable favourite in the other three.
Two weeks ago, the seat spread markets showed Labor favoured to win 86-90 seats at $2.70, 81-85 seats at $3.50 and 91 to 100 seats at $4.85. That has narrowed somewhat with Labor’s projected seat total of 81 to 86 seats sharing favouritism with an 86 to 90 seat win at $2.75. Labor is now at $4.00 to sneak into government (76 to 80 seats) and paying $4.50 to win 91 to 100 seats. Labor falling short of a majority (71 to 75 seats) stands at $8.00.
On the individual seat analysis taken from two betting agencies, Labor is favoured to win 85 seats, the Coalition 60 with six on the crossbenches. The markets were predicting Labor to win 89 seats a fortnight ago.
The number of seats Labor was favoured to gain from the Coalition at very short odds ($1.34 or less) has changed from seven to five seats, two in New South Wales — Reid (Labor $1.17, Coalition $4.00), Gilmore (Labor $1.15, Coalition $5.00, Nationals $6.00), Forde in Queensland (Labor $1.34, Coalition $3.10), Hasluck in Western Australia (Labor $1.34, Coalition $3.15) and Chisholm in Victoria (Labor $1.17, Coalition $4.75).
Banks in New South Wales has shifted towards the Coalition (Labor $2.25, Coalition $1.60), as has Boothby in South Australia (Labor $2.05, Coalition $1.70) and Dawson in Queensland (Labor $1.91, Coalition $1.80). Labor is now also favoured to lose its marginal Queensland seat of Herbert (Labor $2.15, Coalition $1.62).
Besides Herbert, the markets show the Coalition is looking at possible gains in Wentworth and Lindsay in New South Wales, Indi in Victoria and Braddon and Bass in Tasmania. The quotes in this band of five seats are all neck and neck with the exception of Wentworth where the bookies have installed Dave Sharma ($1.25) a solid favourite ahead of Kerryn Phelps ($3.55).
If Phelps loses on May 18, it would mean she was a member for almost seven months but was only required to attend the parliament for seven sitting days, which I guess might be some sort of unwelcome record. In terms of sitting days, would hers be the shortest parliamentary career in Australian political history? I’ll leave that to the trivia nuts.
If the Coalition can pick up all six, it gets to 79 seats and can afford to lose three elsewhere around the country and still form majority government.
It seems unlikely that it might only lose three but therein lies Scott Morrison’s narrow path to the Lodge.
In the band of 15 Liberal-held marginals where Labor is favoured to win, five as shown earlier are short odds-on. Three seats (Deakin in Victoria and Pearce and Stirling in WA) are tight with Labor slight favourites. The remainder (Flynn, Petrie, Dickson and Bonner in Queensland; Robertson in New South Wales; Swan in Western Australia and La Trobe in Victoria) show Labor as warm but hardly red-hot favourites, paying between $1.40 and $1.65.
When we look at Labor held marginals there is not much else the Coalition might put in the maybe column. Top of that list is Cowan in WA where Labor’s Anne Aly is $1.15 to retain, the Coalition at $4.50. It doesn’t get any better scrolling down the Labor marginal column with Labor at $1.11 to hold Longman in Queensland, the LNP $5.00, the next on the list.
There is a prospect that Labor might lose seats to the Greens, the most likely the old seat of Melbourne Ports now called Macnamara where Labor leads narrowly in the betting $1.70 to the Greens $2.15. Elsewhere Labor is a lot firmer to retain Cooper (formerly Batman) $1.14, and Wills, $1.17, under threat from the Greens at $4.50 and $7.50 respectively.
The Coalition faces the loss of seats to independents. Rob Oakeshott ($1.55) is a firm favourite to win Cowper from the Nationals ($2.20). Sussan Ley is neck and neck on the betting with independent Kevin Mack in Farrer. In Warringah Tony Abbott ($1.78) is just ahead of Zali Steggall ($2.00) but the independent candidate’s price has come in from $2.70 on Friday night after the two went head to head in a Sky News debate.
The betting markets are merely a guide, of course. They do get it wrong. As an illustration, in the 2016 federal election, favourites were beaten in eight of the 150 seats. Six of those went to Labor against the odds. Getting it wrong by eight seats this time could see the Coalition back in government.
The most laughable failures aren’t hard to find either. In the 2014 South Australian state election, the Liberals were installed at $1.04 favourites to win government with Labor paying $15. The Liberals won 53 per cent of the 2PP vote but Labor won 23 seats and formed government. Globally, we need look no further than the 2016 US Presidential election where Hillary Clinton was an unbackable favourite and Donald Trump at five to one. And we all know how that panned out.
In politics, as in sport, long shots get up. They just don’t get up very often.
The betting markets and the polling are essentially showing the same things. The gap between the installed favourites, Labor, and the Coalition as the underdog is narrowing. At this point it would seem not to be narrowing enough.
The 2019 federal election remains Bill Shorten’s to lose.
The article was first published in The Australian on 8 May 2019
Thank you again Mr Hoysted for giving me the opportunity to be a part of what once was a “front bar’ type blog. i will not know what to do with myself without your open style communication blog. Take care.
You can always find me on Twitter or at the Aus. Thanks Dismayed.
They certainly took Downer’s advice. Yonks before the election was called I remember an interview with Lord Downer. he was asked if the Liberals could win the election and if he had any advice,. He sure did-go hard and go negative. And did they take it up with relish!!
Loved that Danny Graham story in the Oz. It spoke of different times and values. The rebellious youth, the brilliant music, the availability of cheap drugs and alcohol, the confrontational cultural crux that allowed many a Danny Graham to carve out their own niche, or follow their desire. They could have written poetry, or novels, or painted interesting stuff, and most of it may have been shit. Regardless, I’ve had the great joy of hanging out with a few of the few “bright characters” from that time. when I was young and they older. I doubt any have made it to wiki, or produced a record (a key difference!) but in their way all were passionate, articulate, educated, opinionated, sociable, stoned, drunk and occasionally brilliant. No one at that time mentioned real estate.
Well, its there now. I have built us a bar of our own in a clubhouse. Its called “Jack’s Bar” in honour of our host of so long.
This the way there, you google: ‘wireclub’, then from there in, you follow the prompts and set up your membership account, its very easy. Please remember, dont use your real dates of birth or names on anything, not worth it.
.
After you have made an account for yourself, just click on the top of the screen that says ‘chatrooms’ and go to the one called “Jack’s Bar”. You can write in the window below and it will appear on screen immediately. The message will stay until the next person comes along, and they can reply. If you wind up in the room at the same time, the messages will appear straight away, and you can ‘chat’.
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Wireclub. Come along, you are all so welcome.
cheers.
Wraith.
ps. In wireclub I am piggylaroo.
What a bunch of lying fakes our pollies are. I would call them dogs, but that is an insult to dogs. Just saw BS Shorten being interviewed by Barrie Cassidy this morning, nearly lost my breakfast. Lying fake bastard, either that or he is incredibly stupid to think he is fooling anyone. Got mad at Cassidy for not pulling him up, but then I thought no, he is thinking “Oh what’s the use”, and allowed him to keep going. What a sick joke our politicians are playing on our country.
Is there anybody out there worth voting for? Pink Floyd were right.
Golly Mack! You have aroused me from my ennui regarding the elections. Where previously I couldn’t have given a flying f**k who wins the election because the great elephant of AGW which is about to do it’s almighty terminal dump on the lot of us makes it all so irrelevant , I now passionately , fervently, feverishly , fanatically, frenziedly implore the fates to install Bill Shorten (great guy who will make a splendid PM) as Prime Minister.
I agree JB. Unless Labor win this election with a decent majority we are in for another 3 years of the same e have endured for a decade – and this country will go backwards even faster than it is now. A wafer thin win leading to another minority govt, by either side, will be a disaster. A change is urgently needed. We live in interesting times.
Farewell to all. Been nice chatting – and thankyou Jack! I follow you, James, couple of bloggers here – and the Tassie larrikins (Kudelka, First Dog OTM ) on Twitter. It can be hilarious.
For those who have my email etc – look me up if you get down this way.
Cheers
Boa
So, Saint Bill will hold up his staff and the AGW “terminal dump” will be immediately abated. Yes, another biblical-like narrative on your part JB, of nonsensical proportions. c
You are so naive Jean. When I see BS Shorten riding a rechargeable moped to work instead of a chauffeured limo I might consider my opinion of him vis a vis AGW. Until then, he is living a lie.
https://www.bbc.com/food/diets/vegan_vs_flexitarian
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/news-life/carer-lays-bare-the-tragic-longterm-impact-of-vegan-parents-neglect-on-their-baby/news-story/4780351234162d1f6fb1d7dc68630c7f
God help us if this crowd gains ascendancy.
Mate, there’s millions of vegans who do no harm to any living species.
Then there’s militant vegans. Huge difference. 😮
I thought that was a tautology. Millions?
Great show at the G today – no strings attached. #EggBoi would have been omeletted had zhe been in attendance.
A hopeless campaign from Labor.
When Morrison used his theme of ‘the economy’ as his election theme he virtually handed his head and the election on a plate to Labor but they let him off! No talk of the massive debt incurred by the Liberals, falling investment, low consumer confidence , the unemployment lie-tell me ONE job the Liberals have delivered. Most of thre jobs are part time and under-employment is over a million! Most jobs are a result of population growth-no wizardry from the Liberals. They sacked thousand in CSIRO, C.Link, Tax Office,Climate Council, ACCC. But I rate the most serious blunder EVER by ANY Labor administration as the mistake in failing to use the Global Financial crisis as the springboard to laying the foundation re Labor being the better economic managers. A HUGE tactical error. Labor had to drag out Bob and Keating to do this job for them-how embarrasing. And taxes? Letting them get away with this? The seven highest TAXING years in the history of our country have ALL been under Liberal governments. The ten highest SPENDING years in the history of our country have ALSO been under Liberal governments. There have been only seven occasions where the tax to GDP ratio has been in excess of 23.5 per cent of GDP and all seven were under the Howard government. Lastly the big target approach never works. The Liberals have picked the best parts of Labor’s policies for themselves and lied about the rest. Labor is letting a one man sideshow, Morrison win the campaign.
I enjoyed the joint Hawke and Keating piece in the Fairfax papers, they really do have a great story to tell, it’s just a pity we have been too embarrassed to tell it for 23 years or so.
hear hear hear hear
Agree
Aaaahhh shit. 9 minutes ago I had my hand around 800 bucks but in the end … bugger. The scoreline doesn’t reflect the tone of the game and the Blues played a great hand. Another cruel loss. Curnow, Cripps, Casboult and Kruezer played outstanding roles but there was great effort across the park. Done but not disgraced. They’re just losing the stroke in the final moments of their games. I was already tasting the steak and a few Tooheys Olds I was going to have at the pub but it’s back to camp, a tin of stew and some Chateau Cardboard. Sigh.
You could have had a pie?